The U.S. ammunition industry is experiencing a market downturn reminiscent of the last so-called “Trump Slump,” with importers, wholesalers, distributors, and retailers feeling the impact.
Back in 2016, after Donald Trump’s first election victory, many Americans believed that Second Amendment rights were secure, leading to a sharp decline in firearms and ammunition sales. This phenomenon, dubbed the “Trump Slump,” was short-lived, as subsequent events—civil unrest, the COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chain disruptions—created unprecedented demand. Factors like European primer shortages, Russian sanctions, and the war in Ukraine led to skyrocketing ammo prices, peaking in 2021 with 9mm rounds exceeding 50 cents each and 5.56 climbing to a dollar per round.
By late 2024, however, ammunition prices had stabilized, with NATO calibers returning to pre-pandemic levels. But then—history repeated itself.
Trump’s Return and the Industry’s Miscalculation
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, many firearms and ammunition manufacturers anticipated a different outcome. Betting on a Trump loss, they stockpiled massive quantities of firearms and ammunition, expecting political unrest or a new wave of restrictive gun laws. Instead, Trump secured a decisive victory over Kamala Harris, sending shockwaves through an industry that had braced for the opposite.
Now, the “Second Trump Slump” has arrived, exacerbated by Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and escalating trade tensions. The resulting economic uncertainty has spiked the VIX (Volatility Index), signaling investor anxiety and a slowdown in consumer spending on firearms and ammunition.
The Silver Lining—A Buying Opportunity?
With excess inventory piling up, manufacturers are slashing prices, dumping surplus ammunition onto the market. For savvy buyers, this could be the perfect opportunity to stock up before the next inevitable surge. If history is any indication, ammunition prices won’t stay low forever—so those who “buy the dip” now could be well-positioned when the market rebounds.
What’s your move? Are you preparing for the next price spike, or sitting on the sidelines? Let us know in the comments. If you are ready to “Buy the Dip” Take advantage of our Inventory Liquidation DOGE Sale (Department of Gun Efficiency) Use code DOGE at Checkout to Save an Additional 10%. Shop Trump Slump Ammo Prices now!