The talks will include nearly all 32 NATO countries — notably without the United States — as well as Commonwealth nations and Asian powers Japan and South Korea, said a French military official. Participants will be invited to spell out what their militaries might be able and willing to contribute, be that troops, weapons or other assistance.
The Paris meeting is the most significant culmination so far of French and British efforts to rally nations under a so-called “coalition of the willing” to safeguard Ukraine by establishing a reassurance and deterrence force to dissuade Russia from invading again.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is to attend the meeting, said it would be held in “close coordination” with the NATO alliance.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said “this meeting is important because it lays the ground for these security guarantees” and how “European armed forces can gain credit and credibility for diplomatic talks which will, unquestionably, extend over the long term.”
Some Ukrainian officials are wary of any deal without clearly identified security guarantees. For them, a key question is how such a coalition will respond if Russia violates any future ceasefire agreement. What kind of military response would follow a large-scale offensive by Russia and how quickly will that response materialize?
Western and Ukrainian officials said that, while there is plenty of thinking and resolve, there is no definitive plan for military options yet. First, they must assess what willing countries might be able to offer. The Associated Press spoke to Western and Ukrainian officials in Kyiv, as well as French officials in Paris and British officials in London. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to speak openly about sensitive matters.
“Diplomats are discussing, military officials are discussing, but we still don’t have real proposals,” said a senior Ukrainian official about the plan. The talks “are not in the first stage, we did a lot in the first stage, but we still don’t have a real solid approach.”
What means of deterrence?
As President Donald Trump has appeared to nix the idea of U.S. security guarantees and other U.S. officials said this will fall on Europe to enforce, the French-British plan looks to create a force equipped with enough military might to dissuade Russia from attacking Ukraine again. “That is the crux of it,” said a Western official in Kyiv.
The force being envisaged by France and Britain would aim to reassure Ukraine and deter another large-scale Russian offensive after any ceasefire, a French military official told AP. It could include heavy weaponry and weapons stockpiles that could be rushed within hours or days to aid in Ukraine’s defense in the event of a Russian attack that shatters any truce, the official said.
The Western official in Kyiv, offering another idea on the table, said they could incorporate direct and immediate strikes on Russian assets in the event of a violation.
Details of the contours of the proposal have emerged piecemeal in recent weeks as technical discussions have been ongoing between Western diplomatic and military officials in Ukraine and other European capitals.
Political leaders have convened key summits in the past two months to establish common ground. It was discussed at a summit of more than a dozen mostly European leaders in London on March 2, and at a virtual planning meeting on March 5 called by the U.K. and attended by officials from about 20 countries.
