According to a recent analysis, the long-standing American advantage over China is crumbling beneath the waters.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese technology has resulted in new Chinese submarines becoming harder to detect as it improves their capacity to sniff out opposing submarines.
According to the Journal, “the era of unrivaled dominance of the United States under the seas around China is coming to an end.”
Former Navy officer Christopher Carlson believes that more aircraft and submarines will be needed to keep up.
“The implications for the U.S. and our Pacific allies will be profound,” he said.
Although the Journal study states that China’s fleet will not be able to match the individual capability of what the US can deploy, China is developing more submarines while the US is struggling.
🗞️🇨🇳Early this year, #China put to sea a nuclear-powered attack submarine with a pump-jet propulsion system instead of a propeller. It was the first time noise-reducing technology used on the latest American submarines had been seen on a Chinese submarine. – WSJ pic.twitter.com/zKIfvdRhUB
— Konstantinos V. (@KonstanVe) November 20, 2023
To achieve global commitments, the military has stated that it requires 66 nuclear-powered assault submarines. It has 49 nuclear-powered submarines in its fleet of 67. Even under the best-case scenario, the Navy will not reach that goal until 2049.
There are six nuclear-powered attack submarines in China. Carlson believes that once China has a prototype, it might produce three times as many submarines per year as the United States.
A Pentagon assessment currently anticipates that China will deploy 80 ballistic missiles and attack submarines by 2035.
According to Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of US Strategic Command, China’s ballistic missile submarines are capable of striking targets on the US mainland while remaining close to China.
China is also improving its ability to detect what is sailing beneath the surface as a result of the “Underwater Great Wall.” Upgraded sensors along the Chinese coast and in the South China Sea, as well as China’s habit of combining aircraft and helicopters to hunt submarines, have reduced the element of surprise.
According to the Journal story, American submarines play a significant part in simulations of an attack on Taiwan, but if the supremacy assumed in such scenarios no longer exists, they may need to defend themselves rather than target possible invasion ships.
According to Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a former submarine officer, China might unleash submarines east of Taiwan to hunt down US submarines.
He said that as China’s strength grows, and demands on America’s forces increase, odds of a showdown increase.
“[T]he U.S. submarine force will certainly be in greater demand than ever before across the wider Pacific and with narrowing margins of advantage over its chief adversary,” he said.
The Defense Department has noted that China has the world’s largest navy totaling 370 ships and submarines.