Just because the material is disclosed in a classified briefing does not necessarily imply that it is true or correct. The people who put together these briefings or composed the intelligence reports are human and can make mistakes. Remember that while you read the rest of this article.
Consider two of the BLUFs on three of the briefing slides. Remember that BLUF stands for Bottom Line Up Front. To prepare briefings in the United States military, you must be fluent in the usage of acronyms. The first two photos were taken on February 28, 2023.
It is critical to recognize that this is a snapshot assessment based on the information available to the Defense Intelligence Agency on that day.
BLUF #1 — Current UKR Air Defense (AD) plan balances limited resources to protect critical national infrastructure (CNI), population centers, front line of troops (FLOT), and other key assets across Ukraine. UKRs ability to provide medium range air defense to protect the FLOT will be completely reduced by MAY 23. UKR assessed to withstand 2 – 3 more wave strikes. As 1st Layer Defense munitions run out, 2nd and 3rd Layer expenditure rates will increase, reducing the ability to defend against Russian aerial attacks from all altitudes.
The red blocks on the right side of the figure above show the dates when the specific Ukrainian AD systems will cease to exist or fire.
The following slide goes into greater information about what is in store for Ukrainian AD capabilities:
ASSESSMENT
1. SA – 10 and SA – 11 comprise 89% of Ukraine’s Air Defense medium/high-range, medium/high-range (>20,000 ft.) Based on current interceptor consumption:
- BUK (SA – 11) will be completely depleted by 31 MAR 2023
- S – 300 (SA – 10) will have be (sic) completely depleted by 02 MAY 2023
2. AD systems with remaining interceptor inventory (SA – 3, SA – 12, NASAAM, IRIS – T, etc.) have a limited quantity of systems, which means that only select assets can be covered. They are unable to match the Russian volume and cannot be layered.
3. US/A&P SHORAD (Short – Range Air Defense System) contributions (Stinger, Avenger, Gephard, Crotale, etc.) continue to mitigate the expenditure of Strategic and Tactical SAMs. However, short – range, low altitude systems do not have the same deterrent effect on the threat of Russian multi-role aircraft tot the FLOT and CNI.
4. Limited or no Ukrainian Air-to-Air Defense (A2AD).
5. Multiple mitigating systems must be simultaneously pursued to increase decisions for more sustainable solutions.
Pay close attention to this next BLUF. It concerns the reports on Ukrainian and Russian casualties.
We have low confidence in Russian (RUS) and Ukrainian (UKR) attrition rates and inventories because of information gaps, OPSEC and IO efforts, and potential bias in UKR information sharing. Casualty assessments, which fluctuate depending on the source, are informed by RUS, Wagner, and UKR officials. In the below sustainability assessments, high indicates the forces can sustain operations across all domains, moderate indicates the forces have difficulty sustaining operations in one domain, and low indicates the forces are unable to sustain operations across multiple domains.
What this report lacks is a thorough explanation of the origins of the casualty and loss data. This is terrifying. The DIA can count destroyed and damaged vehicles, tanks, and artillery using overhead photography. Because of the mechanisms used to obtain such information, I would expect the paper to be classified as TOP SECRET if they were doing so. This document is instead classed as S/NF.
I assume the Ukrainians provided intelligence about Russian losses. As a result, Russian casualties are overstated while Ukrainian losses are understated. As a result, the BLUF clearly mentions “potential bias in UKR information sharing.” This is merely a lovely way of saying that we know Ukraine is lying but cannot say so due to policy considerations.
Regardless of Russia’s real deaths and equipment losses, these briefings portray a bleak image of Ukraine losing its ability to repel missile and plane attacks. That is exactly what has occurred.
In the early days of the war, an acquaintance whom I respect was quite inclined to accept the Ukrainian assertions at face value. Not any longer. He now admits that Ukraine habitually lies to the US regarding force strength, preparedness, and battlefield successes.
There is still a lot of glee in the United States and NATO about Ukraine standing firm and Russia running out of munitions. However, media outlets in Ukraine that are staunch supporters of Biden’s strategy are telling a different picture.
The Washington Post reported four days ago:
Even amid a shortage, Ukraine is firing about 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, according to a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Russia, which may also be running low, is firing more — by some estimates triple that amount.
To keep up with their adversary and still conserve ammunition, the Ukrainian military is now pickier in selecting targets, often prioritizing equipment over small groups of infantry. Precision is key because misses mean wasted shells. And in underground workshops across eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions.
Artillery rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet-era guns, which make up the majority of their arsenal, have long been in short supply. That has forced a reliance on the artillery provided by Kyiv’s Western allies because they use 155mm-caliber shells, which Ukraine has more of for now but for far fewer guns.
Given the disparity between what Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley are telling the public and the troubling facts revealed in the leaked cables, it is reasonable to assume that someone with clearances decided to blow the whistle without identifying himself or herself.
Some have speculated that the Biden Administration leaked this information in order to drum up support for greater aid to Ukraine. That is completely absurd. Some of the TS data circulating on the internet is both revealing and damaging to the United States’ relationships with a variety of countries and organizations, including Israel, South Korea, Ukraine, and the UN Secretary-General. The size and scope of the leak lead me to believe that it was done by a whistleblower.
Lloyd Austin and Mark Milley appear to be channeling Leslie Nielson from The Naked Gun: