The recent decision by China to halt the export of two critical components —nitrocellulose and antimony— has raised alarms within the U.S. ammunition manufacturing industry and among defense experts. These materials are indispensable in the production of propellant powder and primers, and their restriction threatens to create significant supply chain disruptions.
As geopolitical tensions rise and global conflicts, like the war in Ukraine, drive up demand for ammunition, the U.S. faces an uncertain future in maintaining adequate ammunition supplies for both military and civilian markets.
China’s Stranglehold on Critical Materials
China’s dominance in the production of antimony and nitrocellulose cannot be overstated. As the world’s largest producer of antimony, China accounts for nearly half of global production and supplies 63% of U.S. antimony imports. Antimony plays a vital role in the defense industry, from armor-piercing ammunition to night vision goggles and precision optics. Nitrocellulose, or “guncotton,” is essential for making propellant powder used in ammunition.
Without these core materials, the U.S. ammunition supply chain is left extremley vulnerable.
In August 2024, China announced that it would discontinue the export of these materials to the United States. This decision follows a series of similar moves by China in June of 2024 to restrict the global flow of critical minerals and materials in the name of national security. For example, China imposed export controls on graphite and rare earth materials in 2023, impacting industries from semiconductors to electric vehicles. Now, the defense and ammunition sectors are bracing for the impact of these new restrictions.
Antimony’s Critical Role
Antimony is a crucial material for the U.S. defense sector, particularly for hardening lead bullets and creating other munitions. The closure of domestic antimony mines in the early 2000s has left the U.S. entirely dependent on foreign sources, with China being the most significant supplier. Recent efforts, such as the proposed reopening of the Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho, are intended to reduce reliance on Chinese imports. However, these projects will take years to come online, meaning the U.S. remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions in the short term.
Nitrocellulose and Ammunition Production
Nitrocellulose, another critical component in ammunition manufacturing, has also become a point of geopolitical tension. Nitrocellulose is used in propellant powder and is necessary for both firearms and artillery. Europe, too, has felt the pinch, as European countries rely on China for the bulk of their nitrocellulose imports to supply Ukraine with ammunition during its ongoing conflict with Russia.
Impact on U.S. Ammunition Supply
As China’s export restrictions take effect, U.S. ammunition manufacturers are already struggling to keep up with demand. Many companies report that their supply of components, especially propellant powder, has dwindled throughout the year, with much of the global supply being diverted to military efforts in Ukraine and domestic military stockpiles. As a result, civilian ammunition consumers are likely to experience increased shortages and higher prices.
John Farnam, an industry expert, warns that these supply chain issues will only get worse. Farnam shared insights from his connections in the ammunition business:
“Right now, most components are reasonably available, but that will begin to change soon! Two weeks ago, the CCP precipitously announced that it was discontinuing the export to the USA of nitrocellulose and antimony. These two products are indispensable in the production of propellant powder and primers. There are other, lesser sources, but the CCP has always been the main supplier. I predict significant commercial ammunition shortages, starting shortly!”